Scribbled Rhymes

Scribbled rhymes in an old school book
Speak of a page long turned.
When streets were empty, when the mind was free,
When worldliness wasn’t yet learned.

Scribbled rhymes in an old school book
From the depths of promise were born.
Nor boundary, nor ego, nor judgment they knew
Nor baggage of times forgone.

They filled each verse with innocent hope
Each simile with simple thought.
Each line unraveled the road first travelled,
Then slowed to a silent halt.

I found that page on a dusty shelf,
Yellowed by the taint of life.
It’s tough to write on with conscious mind
And heart of selfish strife.

I must find that space, where I wandered before,
Those streets in the glistening sun.
And before I find that place again,
Outgrow who I have become.

Wilson Varghese
August 2, 2009

A political start-up and its economic sense

Life has an uncanny way of achieving equilibrium. No matter where we choose to operate in the short term, we are brought back to the 'as it should be' at the end of each cycle. And here we are at the end of one such.

India has almost serendipitously found itself at the cusp of greatness thanks to the IT revolution and its impact on globalization. We've suddenly found an outlet to showcase our talent and profit from it thanks to the access we now have on the information super-highway. Our subsequent consumption on the back of our now higher incomes have made India one of the largest consumer markets in the world, a 300 million strong middle class with fairly decent sized pockets. But have we fully utilized the opportunity? My estimate - we're close to half of the potential that can be achieved.

More than 700 million people in India's villages are still to see the benefits of the economic upswing (yes- that seems a little distant now, but we're still better off than 10 years ago). Their growth has been stunted on account of isolation from the mainland and deprivation of basic amenities. We should have been more inclusive in taking the majority of the country along the path but we didn't, and now we are forced to do so if we are to progress any further from this point. This is the threshold and this is the opportunity for India Inc.

Imagine the potential of a domestic market of a billion consumers with decent sized pockets! Can you imagine the impact on retail, healthcare, housing, consumer staples, automobiles, financial services, commodities etc. The pie could be exponentially larger. The revolution can only begin by ensuring that people are able to afford decent housing, clean water, 3 meals a day and an education. Leave the rest to the human spirit.

This can't be achieved by the current leadership in the country. No way. We have an election in 3 months. Corporates financing their campaigns will lead to gaining certain sops for a specific industry but won't fuel the growth that could actually be achieved by increasing the overall market size. We need a new political class, one that has atleast half a conscience. I know how realistic this hope is, that's why I'm proposing that we choose an alternate route. A different political party.

The Confederation of Indian Industry.

There's enough of intellectual capital, financial muscle and advertising genius available here to win an election and to make a significant difference to the fortunes of our nation, and their own fortunes as well. There's never a wrong reason to do the right thing. There will be more bang for the taxpayer buck. More policy changes to suit long term and sustainable growth. And why would they want to do this?

The pie. Larger the pie, more the dough. Win- win.

There are other important reasons why this needs to happen now. We're fast becoming the largest workforce in the world, if we haven't already. The opportunity needs to be provided now. We're a young nation. We're more open to change than we have been before. And perhaps more importantly, global recession is forcing many countries to protect their own markets, though this is both short sighted and dangerous it may happen anyway. This makes it more important for Indian industry to do what it can to build a larger and stronger domestic market.

I have a few names to throw into the fray, I'm sure there are more that can be added to the list, some perhaps even from the current political lot. Manmohan Singh and a few others should join them.

Nandan Nilekani, KV Kamath, Deepak Parekh, Narayan Murthy, Ratan Tata, Sunil Mittal, Tulsi Tanti, Kiran Muzumdar Shaw...

Here's to governance by corporates. If we're not to miss the bus, 700 million Indians need to get on it...quickly.

Any venture capitalists listening?

An alternate stimulus package

Quite some post mortem analysis has gone into proposed solutions to fetch us out of the hole that is the current recession. Each of the theories have their benefits and limitations. One of the biggest quandaries facing governments regarding bail outs is the use of hard earned tax payer money to prop up firms that have made serious errors of judgement. The average Joe or Ramnath will not accept the use of his funds for a purpose which does not benefit him in a direct way. All the arguments about the indirect benefits trickling down to him from reviving the economy will not wash. In some ways, this stand is justified.

This being said, there's also no doubt that substantial funds are required to be put to use if we are ever to see the light at the end of this tunnel.

I thought I'd add a proposal to help achieve both if it can be successfully implemented. Its only fair to propose a solution since my previous blog was about a highlighting part of this problem. The implementation of what 'm going to propose requires a lot of intent and a truly purposeful resolve in ending the crisis. The feasibility of this method in my mind though, is quite diminished given the strong nexus between the implementers of my strategy and the source of the funds to be generated for the exercise. But as they say, there are no judgement calls to be made during a brainstorming session and so here's my proposition.

Black money.

We don't have official stats for the unofficial parallel economy that our tax evaders, smugglers, drug traffickers, terrorists etc operate in. I wonder what knock on effect this recession is having on their flourishing industry. Either way, I don't think too many would care if we had two or three great depressions that would break the back of the black market. My absolute "finger in the air"guess is that its probably as large as the organised economy. In any case, what we're really looking for is the recoupment of at least the stimulus package funds that are required.

A crackdown on these ''industries" will be able to deliver the funds we need. Bad money chasing bad assets. You can divide these into two groups from my list above. Tax evasion is the lesser of the evils from my list above and can be treated differently. All those who've evaded tax can be given an amnesty window where they can pay a fine of a percentage of the amount (30% for instance) and be allowed to bring the money into circulation. This isn't my brainwave. I remember the Indian Finance Minister of the time P Chidambaram implementing a Voluntary Disclosure of Tax Scheme like this in the late nineties and if my memory serves me right, it generated a revenue for the government of slightly over INR 1 billion. Now that's already 25% of the funds that the Indian Government is spending in the country's stimulus package. From the people who haven't disclosed after the amnesty period, all the funds can be frozen.

This plan is obviously not to be taken for people who have earned money at the cost of degradation, destruction and murder in society. For the rest of the list, no voluntary disclosures will do. Hunt them down, bring them to justice and put the funds to use for the betterment of society. But who's going to do this? Who will rattle the snakes? Many political leaders are probably part of this industry or abet it in some way, hence my caveat in paragraph three.

So whatever else this may be, in the least its an option for all its worth.

When sub-prime met prime time

Writing on the financial meltdown issue is kinda overkill I'm sure. There's been more than enough air time given and I guess the average Joe has had an overdose. A familiar story line plays out with a few name changes: Merill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, WaMu to new record lows that are reached with the sound of each day's closing bell on Wall Street or Dalal Street.

I don't want to dwell on the failings of executives. Whether it was greed, undue pressure from their boards to deliver better than expected results quarter after quarter, short sightedness or just plain incompetence, it really doesn't matter anymore. Have the lessons been learned? We certainly hope so.

We've also flogged another horse enough- governments and (de) regulators. Will the bail outs and rescue plans help retrieve the situation? They most likely won't take full effect in the short term and in my tuppence opinion, will probably come up short.

I do not underestimate the impact that they have had in the slightest, for they are accountable to a fair extent for the situation that we are in. What I want to explore is a more fundamental reason for this crisis-

our XXL dreams

... and our urge to fund them with money that we don't have.

It was the common man, who succumbed to his impulse to purchase a home larger than he could afford. And I dare add, larger than he needed. Whether the odd person was lulled into a mis-sale or not, at a macro level I believe most people knew what they were getting into. And it didn't stop at homes alone. EMIs are the name of the game today and its the magic wand for anything from I-Pods to a posh set of wheels.

At some stage in life, we forgot the value of fiscal discipline that I'm sure most of our parents generation practised through out their life. We failed to differenciate between a need and a want, a necessity and luxury. There's no doubt now whether this is a temporary slump or the start of a painful economic recession which has unfortunately had a domino effect on otherwise fundamentally strong economies around the world.

What happened to saving for a rainy day, to being content with what you have, to borrowing sensibly with the knowledge of what you can afford to pay back. Not all of us are financial gurus, but all of us have the capacity for common sense and prudence. Hopefully we have learned our lessons. And after fair criticism of the people who were entrusted to keep things in check, lets take a healthy dose of introspection as people who've had a hand in this as well and move on wiser.

My heart goes out to those who did practise this, and did save for a rainy day. For those who invested as they should have, in good equity for the long term. They are paying for mistakes that they never made.

Celtic Moira

Don't blame me if a few more of these posts are about sporting conquests of little consequence to you. The last few years of my life have been in small part about reclaiming the joys of youth.... and leaving my body to cope with the side effects for the rest of the weekend. Yes, friday football brings out the very best of our man-to- 'what man?' marking, muffed sitters with a few golden moments thrown in, and we wouldn't trade it for anything.

Last Friday, we were given a golden opportunity by our good friend Chris (only footballer in jeans in the pic) and manager of the team to test ourselves against nimble footed Goan teenagers in a competitive event and we grabbed it with both hands. In an epic 20 minutes of playing time, we huffed and puffed and kept pace with the new kids on the block and did a good job of it.

Played two, a loss & a tie. All in all, a good days fun...I mean it! We played two good games lead by captain Duane and saw a screamer of a goal scored by Volly (i dunno why he isn't in the team pic). In the end we did win something though...best team jerseys!

More of it I say! These are good times.

Whiny cricket fans

Indian cricket is in a familiar phase of it cricketing cycle. An insipid performance, putting us on the verge of elimination from the World Cup. And the stupid response from a section of stupid fans.

Express your displeasure, you have a right to. But what's this effigy burning, home stoning crap all about man? And its funnier with the comments that keep coming in from the holier than thou cricket fan:

They ought to give their 100%. ...dedication, pespiration, pelvic gyration etc
Typically this response is from the guys who bunked work to watch the game.

Its time for Sachin to retire,.Give younger, fitter guys a chance.
So how about quitting your job after not making your targets. That makes you an overpaid slob too doesn't it?

They spend too much time on endorsements.
Why, would you give that up if you had the chance? And how the hell do you know how much they practise anyway?

We played bad, we lost! If you want to punish them, stop watching cricket!
We''ll go ga ga over them next month in a home series against Bermuda if we win 3-2 in the one dayers. An then whine, stone, burn, slap em all over again. Why don't we ever do this to our politicians.

Why bar girls should be behind bars

Yesterday's crackdown on the dance bars by the Mumbai Police are yet another feather in their topis. Infact, most of these feathers might just have been plucked from the dancing girls' headgear. The regularity with which these raids are taking place is starting to make me think that there might even be some sound strategy behind it. An innovative tactic which would rid us of the fear that the underworld and other anti social elements have struck within us.

For a couple of years now politicians and cops have taken it upon themselves to rid society of the irreprehensible culture of dance bars (which has been the major cause of general lawlessness and corruption in India). There's no bigger danger to our society than dance bars.

I really think that every time our cops raid a dance bar while acting on a tip off (or general exercise), the dons have already fled. This tends to be a waste of time, fuel and under-utilization of prison cell capacity. So why not round up those who are still around... the bar girls! You need to have something to show for your efforts, don't you.

Kudos to you guys. If you can't nab those who need to be, atleast you're making sure that they aren't entertained.